I believe, therefore I am…

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This week, a reader asked me my opinion about a media story where two men are claiming to be the father of the same baby. For those of you in the know, this story involves the recent birth of Anna Nicole Smith’s daughter. Ms. Smith is a sensational character as we all know — not someone who usually interests me — but of course, the truth does. So when a reader asked for my opinion, I sought out answers.

But this case is very interesting. Two men theoretically could each believe he is truly the father of this baby. AND IF THEY DO GENUINELY BELIEVE (not just hope or try to convince themselves), then they aren’t lying. Right? Right.

Beliefs can affect the truth.

One can believe something that has no bearing in reality. One can truly believe he is being honest when in fact he has (a) been misinformed, or (b) doesn’t know all the facts, or (c) has, in a deranged way, convinced himself fiction is fact.

If one truly believes what he is saying is the truth, I believe I will see that, and feel it. With that, I could theoretically meet two men who believe they are each the father of the same baby — and I know I would have no clue as to which one was and which one wasn’t the father. I would be in the dark.

This could happen.

But I don’t believe it has happened in this case. One man shows steadfast confidence, gives details that logically support his claims — and he gives reasons why Anna Nicole Smith has run away from him to the Bahamas. Everything is plausible and I do not see any inconsistencies in speech, stated facts taken at face-value (I didn’t go verify them), emotions, behavior, etc.

The other man comes across as very timid, insecure and full of self-doubt, and his reasoning and justifications just don’t add up. Howard Stern says Anna Nicole Smith wants to live a “normal” life in the Bahamas hence that is why she left the U.S., but she does plan on continuing her work in the U.S. A normal life in the Bahamas, commuting long distance? I just don’t see it. And there is more.

Howard Stern doesn’t explain the time lines to us about his involvement, that he had a secret affair, etc. He still could have had a secret affair with Anna. I can’t dispute that. I haven’t seen him answer questions to this point, to know any better. But he doesn’t stand strong in his belief, offer us anything convincing, etc. He doesn’t talk with conviction. Why? It gives me pause.

There are two outcomes that could come out of this situation. Howard Stern may have had a secret affair with Ms. Smith months ago — but isn’t sure he is the father — hence why all of the self-doubt — because he knew Ms. Smith was involved with her then boyfriend Larry Birkhead. Or, Howard Stern is flat out being deceptive perhaps to protect Ms. Smith. I believe his behavior hints that he is being less than honest.

I personally believe we will eventually learn that Larry Birkhead is the father of Anna Nicole Smith’s baby through DNA testing because the excuses that Howard Stern is giving just don’t add up, and aren’t logical — furthermore, he supports this with his timid, insecure behavior.

Statistically speaking, I’d say the likelihood of Stern being the father is 10% (affairs do happen!), and Birkhead being the father is 90%.

Only time will tell. Either way, Ms. Smith has some explaining to do!

More posted here on Feb 27, 2007.

Medical Deception?

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Updated

Slate ran an interesting article last week about a health stat that you should know about, but probably don’t. EVERY AMERICAN should know about this health stat– but somewhere along the way medical companies made sure it was confusiong enough you didn’t. It doesn’t have to be confusing after all — but it was made to be.

What do you need to know? It’s called N-N-T. “Numbers Needed to Treat”. Just because a drug has a a 31% reduction in say heart attacks, doesn’t mean that 31 people out of a hundred face reduced odds if they took the drug.

That’s what you thought? Didn’t you? I certainly did. Simple math.

Not so quick.

The article says, ” What, after all, does a 31 percent relative reduction in heart attacks mean? In the case of the 1995 study, it meant that taking Pravachol every day for five years reduced the incidence of heart attacks from 7.5 percent to 5.3 percent.”

“Suppose that 100 people with high cholesterol levels took statins. Of them, 93 wouldn’t have had heart attacks anyway. Five people have heart attacks despite taking Pravachol. Only the remaining two out of the original 100 avoided a heart attack by taking the daily pills. In the end, 100 people needed to be treated to avoid two heart attacks during the study period –so, the number of people who must get the treatment for a single person to benefit is 50. This is known as the ‘number needed to treat.'” (Treat Me?The crucial health stat you’ve never heard of.By Darshak SanghaviPosted Tuesday, Sept. 26, 2006)

So, a 31% reduction in heart attacks, means two people out of 100 were spared a heart attack. Did you know that is what this meant?

Next time, when you are taking a prescription drug, ask for the NNT, then look at the side effects.

Don’t miss this article. Read it here.

You decide: Is this practice deceptive? Or do you think it is necessary for 50 people to take a drug for the benefit of one?

John Mark Karr

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Case Summary:
John Mark Karr confessed to killing JonBenet Ramsey, daughter of John and Patsy Ramsey ten years after her death. John and Patsy Ramsey have adamantly denied any involvement in the murder.
* * *

Karr is supposed to return to the U.S. today and we’ll hopefully soon get our answers about this unique and odd individual.

Many people have come to my website to check and see if I believe Karr when he says he killed JonBenet Ramsey, he was with her when she died and it was an accident.

I do NOT believe any one of these three statements made by John Karr. I believe he is knowingly deceiving people though I do not believe this man is mentally healthy.

I think Karr fixated on JonBenet years ago, and I believe he has become so fixated on her that he wants in anyway to be associated with her — even if it means confessing to a crime he did not commit. He just wants to be part of JonBenet, positive or negatively – it doesn’t matter.

When Karr speaks to the media, he is unable to answer any important questions. He stutters for words, moves his eyes in ways that shows he has to consciously think before he speaks to say the “right things”. None of Karr’s words come naturally — which they would if he was telling the truth. A killer who confesses and would finally want this done and over with — would give some true signs that he was the killer. Karr cannot do this.

Furthermore, Karr shows he is very nervous, and he flashes tiny expressions of glee which I believe represent the glee that he feels because he is actually getting away with this. It thrills him. This expression furthermore tells me that John Karr knows he is lying. He knows he didn’t kill JonBenet — at least during these interviews. If Karr suffers from delusions however, that state of mind may change and there may be times when he believes he killed her.

I also found a statement made by John Ramsey unique. His comments about Karr were something to the effect we shouldn’t jump to conclusions — until all the facts are in. Ramsey stuttered while he said it. This also raised my eyebrows. Does he know this man is innocent?

Hopefully, DNA and other evidence will clear this guy, and he won’t be made to be the fall-out guy. This man definitely needs psychiatric help.

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Update 10-23-06:
DNA did not match up to John Mark Karr — CNN reports it here.

Newest Post on John Mark Karr:
John Mark Karr Returns, June 7, 2007

Weird Statement – Red Flag

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Case Summary:
John Mark Karr confessed to killing JonBenet Ramsey, daughter of John and Patsy Ramsey ten years after her death. John and Patsy Ramsey have adamantly denied any involvement in the murder.
* * *

The big news today is the break in the JonBenet Ramsey case. Have you heard?

Supposedly, “John Mark Karr, 41, will be taken within the week to Colorado, where he will face charges of first degree murder, kidnapping and child sexual assault, Ann Hurst of the Department of Homeland Security told a news conference in Bangkok.

…Karr confessed to the killing after his arrest Wednesday at his downtown Bangkok guest house by Thai and American authorities, said Lt. Gen. Suwat Tumrongsiskul, head of Thailand’s immigration police.”

However, I found one thing odd about what Gen. Suwat is saying Karr said. Does anyone else find this interesting?

Suwat says, “… Karr told Thai interrogators that he picked JonBenet up at her school and brought her to the family’s basement. He said he loved this child, that he was in love with her. He said she was very pretty, a pageant queen. She was the school star, she was very cute and sweet.”

Wait a minute? Isn’t this odd?

According to the story that has been in the media for a decade JonBenet did not go missing after school! She was kidnapped from home on Christmas.

I just wanted to point out a red flag… It raises my eyebrows, and makes me want to look at this guy closely. While this red flag may mean nothing more than this guy is crazy and nuts — and did kill JonBenet, it could also be a sign he is lying.

Next Post about Karr here.

Lloyd Landis

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I have been asked to give my opinion on Lloyd Landis (below). Do I think Lloyd Landis is being honest — that he did not in fact dope up?

I do not believe Lloyd Landis.

While he gives a cold stare in to the microphones and video interviews, trying to talk in a control manner and lacking much expression — his answers to questions are poor at best, and his weak-toned voice supports a lack of confidence. That coupled with the logic of two failed tests makes me about 85% confident that Mr. Landis is not being honest.

I personally think Mr. Landis is in denial. He cannot accept being stripped of his title. He can’t deal with it because he himself thinks he is an exceptional athlete regardless. He is trying to convince us all, as well as himself with excuse after excuse as to why it is possible these two tests failed us.

I’m not buying it.